Future study of Iran’s Banking Industry in transition to Industry 4.0 Revolution in 2030 Perspective

Askari, Amin; Shirazi, Hossein; Jalali Majidi, Mohsen

doi:10.61186/jmbr.17.61.423

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year 17, Issue 61 (11-2024)

JMBR 2024, 17(61): 423-460

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Future study of Iran’s Banking Industry in transition to Industry 4.0 Revolution in 2030 Perspective

Amin Askari ^*¹

, Hossein Shirazi²

, Mohsen Jalali Majidi³

1- Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University
2- Qom Branch, Islamic Azad University
3- Tabas Branch, Islamic Azad University

Abstract: (342 Views)

The emergence of the fourth industrial revolution and new technologies has spread the concept of banking 4.0. However, many banking managers in Iran are not very sure about the outputs of the transition to banking 4.0, investment costs, and changes in their business model. They need to be highly aware of the future in be sufficiently prepared for and formulate appropriate strategies for the various conditions ahead. This research aims to plan a scenario for the future of banking 4.0 in Iran for the 2030 perspective to help strategists provide strategies for the promotion and sustainable development of this industry. This study is an applied-survey research in which a panel of experts, including 23 banking policymakers and Fintech experts, were selected purposefully. Besides, three researcher-made questionnaires were designed and the gathered data was analyzed using the fuzzy Delphi method for identifying and screening driving forces affecting the future of banking 4.0 in Iran. Moreover, the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) approach was applied to investigate causal relationships between key driving forces and a scenario planning approach was used to analyze final uncertainties and develop plausible scenarios in Scenario Wizard software. Results showed that among the candidate possible scenarios, three ones namely: pair-six, adherence to tradition, and unripe fruit were selected as plausible scenarios. In addition, the pair-six scenario with a compatibility level of 4 and a total impact score of 21 was selected as the imagined future of the banking industry in Iran for the 2030 perspective.

Article number: 3

Full-Text [PDF 876 kb] (128 Downloads)

Type of Study: Methodological Article | Subject: Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit (E5)
Received: 2024/10/2 | Accepted: 2025/02/4 | Published: 2025/03/4

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