[Home ] [Archive]   [ فارسی ]  
Main Menu
Home
Journal Information
Aims& Scopes
Editorial Board
About the Journal
Journal News
Articles archive
All Issues
Current Issue
For Authors
Call for Papers
Submission Instruction
Submission Form
For Reviewers
Reviewers Section
Registration
Registration Information
Registration Form
Contact us
Contact Information
Contact us
Site Facilities
Site map
Search contents
FAQ
Top 10 contents
Inform to friends
::
MBRI Journals

Journal of Money & Economy

AWT IMAGE

(رتبه علمی-پژوهشی)

..
Related Journals

Journal of Islamic Finance Research

AWT IMAGE

(Biannual)

..
Search in website

Advanced Search
..
Receive site information
Enter your Email in the following box to receive the site news and information.
..
:: year 8, Issue 24 (Summer 2015) ::
JMBR 2015, 8(24): 223-250 Back to browse issues page
Estimating Probability of Default for Individual Obligors Based On Basel II
Mohammad Omidinezhad *
Abstract:   (2332 Views)

Probability of clients' default is the most focal parameter in the credit risk Evaluation based on Basel II Accord. In this research, in order to estimate the probability of default, first, a scoring model applying the Logit Regression Technique using the 1343 clients' personal data, credit history, employment information in one of the country's private banks within 1391-1392 was estimated. Through this study, the clients' credit history was identified as the most important factor influencing the probability of default. The statistic ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) of the Model reflected 71.1% implying its high discriminant power. Cluster analysis, using K-means Algorithm, of the scoring estimates of the model lead to 7 rating classes. Next, applying historical default frequency approach, the probability of the default associated with each rating class was estimated. Finally, through the calibration test, the accuracy of the probability of default was confirmed for a sample of 327 credit profiles in 1393.  Undoubtedly, compliance with the international agreements on the banking area is inevitable.

Full-Text [PDF 780 kb]   (2787 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Empirical Study | Subject: Financial Institutions and Services (G2)
Received: 2015/12/31 | Accepted: 2016/08/29 | Published: 2016/08/29


XML   Persian Abstract   Print



Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
year 8, Issue 24 (Summer 2015) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه پژوهش‌های پولی-بانکی Journal of Monetary & Banking Research
Persian site map - English site map - Created in 0.05 seconds with 37 queries by YEKTAWEB 4636